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This is why I distinguish "utilitarianism" - the specific informal methodology loosely based on the von neumann axioms, from "consequentialism" which is the broader philosophical tradition in which utilitarianism is situated.
I hadn't heard of consequentialism before, but I would be broadly supportive of that sort of analysis. It gets problematic when an unequal burden lands on one group in the short ("predictable") term for a greater benefit in the long ("speculative") term.
... and I'm not sure of ethical ways to resolve that.
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