Part of the problem with influenza is it mutates very, very rapidly, in addition to being ludicrously contagious even in its more mild strains.
I wonder if, as a side effect of near-universal social-distancing, we will end up eliminating any other contagious viruses, such as flu strains. Or instead, will the new selective pressure cause more widespread mutations of these viruses?
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With that said, I saw speculation early on that COVID-19 would effectively eliminate this year's "flu season", mostly since everyone is hand washing and avoiding face-touching (this was postulated before near-universal distancing was a thing).
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It's true and also this season flu has been weak and has killed very few people here. Some emit the idea that covid is also reaching people who might have disappeared last winter if there had been a more aggressive flu. But not that many...
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And I do wonder if some viruses, such as measles (which has been on the rise again in some areas) may see a general suppression effect. It's hard to imagine them getting entirely eliminated though. Measles is more contagious than COVID-19 by an order of magnitude, for example.
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Thank goodness covid is not measles contagious and sars deadly. This is a test run, preparedness test. Guess what, we failed, epically. But there’s a chance to prepare for the real one...
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Neither I expect. In any significant amount. Reducing spread won’t increase mutations. In the limit no spread = virus goes away. Most likely they will fall into patterns, cycles of flu/cold that most have some immunity too eventually. Or better, seasonal vaccines...
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That said, when you remove the number of deaths being attributed to Covid-19, the total number of deaths is way higher than seasonal averages anyway. I would guess that that's 100% or more due to undiagnosed Covid-19 instances. I'll try to find the link...
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Influenza mutates fast & has an endless reservoir from wild animals, there are very dangerous strains a couple of mutations away from jumping to humans, it's what virologists have warned us about. Apparently coronaviruses are similar. Recurring pandemics are inevitable.
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We really to step up our antiviral game if we want to avoid this.
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