What’s wrong with this math (modulo error bars)? There are 2500 (https://www.ahd.com/state_statistics.html … ) hospital beds in HI. Covid-19 cases grow 33%/day. At least 1% require beds (death rate). There are at least 2 cases in HI. In about 42 days (1.33^42 * 2 * 0.01) we run out of beds.
You're inferring the number of required beds from the death rate, but the death rate is only as low as it is when it's possible to give 20% of sick people sufficient care to survive. Italy no longer has enough beds and the death rate is quite a bit higher.
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Yes. But as others have noted 1. 60% of beds are already in use generally so your headroom is at most half current beds. 2. 10-15% require hospitalization (not 1%) for optimal treatment. Still since it is exponential in time ~ 1 month is about all you can say.
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