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propensive's profile
Jon Pretty
Jon Pretty
Jon Pretty
@propensive

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Jon Pretty

@propensive

Supporting Scala through professional training and open-source software. Responsible for Magnolia, Fury, Scala World and Functional Africa.

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propensive.com
Joined July 2010

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    1. Jon Pretty‏ @propensive 29 Sep 2019

      There are 100 prisoners, numbered 1-100. The prisoners' numbers are written onto 100 cards, put randomly into 100 envelopes numbered 1-100. They can't communicate, but are invited, one by one, to open 50 envelopes. If any prisoner fails to find his number, they all get killed.

      9 replies 13 retweets 55 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Edward Kmett‏ @kmett 29 Sep 2019
      Replying to @propensive

      This took longer than I'd like. Open the drawer w/your own matching number. If the number doesn't match, open the drawer for that number. Repeat. Now we're hoping that none of the prisoners are in a cycle of length > 50, but at least there can be only one such cycle.

      4 replies 0 retweets 9 likes
    3. Union Square Research Group‏ @UnionSquareGrp 29 Sep 2019
      Replying to @kmett @propensive

      I don’t understand. How does this increase the odds for any one prisoner to better than 50/50? I assume the answer requires later prisoners to know something based on success so far - how does this help with that?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. Jon Pretty‏ @propensive 29 Sep 2019
      Replying to @UnionSquareGrp @kmett

      The numbers in the drawers/envelopes are a permutation. If everyone starts with the envelope containing their number and keeps opening the envelope of the card in the previous one, they will all eventually get back to the same number via some sequence.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    5. Jon Pretty‏ @propensive 29 Sep 2019
      Replying to @propensive @UnionSquareGrp @kmett

      The sequence (or cycle) each prisoner lands may have length from 1 to 100, and there may be anything from 1 to 100 such sequences. But every prisoner is using the same set of cycles. This strategy means that the fates of the prisoners are no longer independent.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      Jon Pretty‏ @propensive 29 Sep 2019
      Replying to @propensive @UnionSquareGrp @kmett

      The probability that there's a cycle (there could only ever be at most one) longer than fifty turns out to be about 70%, and that corresponds to a prisoner needing to open more than fifty envelopes to get back to their number.

      3:27 PM - 29 Sep 2019 from Krakow, Poland
      • 1 Like
      • Union Square Research Group
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        1. New conversation
        2. Jon Pretty‏ @propensive 29 Sep 2019
          Replying to @propensive @UnionSquareGrp @kmett

          The solution is basically maximising the shareable information available to all the prisoners in a way which negates the "one prisoner loses, you all lose" rule by choosing a strategy which does that anyway.

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. Union Square Research Group‏ @UnionSquareGrp 29 Sep 2019
          Replying to @propensive @kmett

          What happens if one of the envelopes contains its own number (envelope #5 says go to envelope #5)?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Show replies

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