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All the tasks which can be completed using known solutions, no matter how large they seem, will be competed quickly. So what's left after that? It might be a small part of the total, but it will need new solutions, working things out for the first time; all the unknowns. (3/4)
So that's where almost all the time is spent: tasks that you've never solved before. And how do you estimate them, when you have no data? It's at best a guess. (4/4)
So 10% of the project original schedule will take 90% of the actual time, there is some old joke about that
Yes. You can pick your n% and (100 - n)% as necessary.
No different than my experience in (big, many $$ millions) construction projects. I would have to estimate schedules/costs/materials with little data/requirements then do it. There is a rich literature on time/cost overruns in complex projects and software is no snowflake here
But construction projects don't have the feature that the majority of the perceived work is basically free, as it often is in software. Even the very worst overrun construction projects, like Berlin-Brandenburg Airport, aren't more that 5x over schedule...
one of my teachers was presenting things like that: the role of information technology is to automate things. So either the thing was already automated, and you can estimate but don't need to. Or it neither was, and you don't have the least idea of why and how much it will take
I wrote a recent article on just thishttps://www.swiftcase.co.uk/blog/article/why-your-estimates-are-a-disaster-and-how-to-do-it-right …
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