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Unlike almost any other production task or industry, software development seeks solutions which are, at their most basic, repeatable; at best, highly abstract and general. One solution can be reused thousands or billions of times for almost zero cost. (2/4)
All the tasks which can be completed using known solutions, no matter how large they seem, will be competed quickly. So what's left after that? It might be a small part of the total, but it will need new solutions, working things out for the first time; all the unknowns. (3/4)
So that's where almost all the time is spent: tasks that you've never solved before. And how do you estimate them, when you have no data? It's at best a guess. (4/4)
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