Vincent RacanielloGeverifieerd account

Have you ran the serious / critical case percentages and multiplied by reasonable possible pandemic attack rates? Even if the current estimates are off by an order of magnitude, it seems unlikely healthcare can keep up. And democracies can’t do what China did.

https://twitter.com/Vaccinologist/status/1233751989047250950 …

do we have data on immunity after recovering from SARS-CoV-2? I'm not sure how much the current models include the number of undiagnosed, asymptomatic cases and the potential immunity they might leave behind.

If you know how vastly underreported the CFR is, you’d retract what you said:”It is possible that the number of infections is actually ten times higher than we detect, which would bring the overall case fatality ratio in the neighborhood of seasonal flu. ”

It’s weird to see a virologist fall into the fallacy of comparing this to the flu. But — you’re the virologist, not me! :) When this is over you’ll either be the one virologist/epi out there who was right or you’ll be that guy who said the impending catastrophe was no big deal

I think if we define bad as dying or severe infections then sure. But mild infections could still be bad in the sense that a) not great to be sick and b) might stress healthcare systems. I’m not sure it’s fair to compare this to influenza as a reason not to be worried a bit.