Umberto Profazio

@profazio

Analyst fan

London, England
Joined July 2011
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  1. Pinned Tweet
    3 Oct 2021

    Truly honoured to have contributed to the latest issue of the with a chapter on and a regional essay on . Really thankful to the for this opportunity and to all those that worked hard on this essential publication on active conflicts.

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    1 reply 4 retweets 25 likes
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  2. Retweeted
    Jun 19

    TUTTE le persone che scappano dalla guerra hanno il diritto di cercare protezione. Giornata mondiale del rifugiato

    7 replies 152 retweets 510 likes
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  3. Retweeted
    Jun 19

    TIMELINE: Libya oil minister: Oil production has collapsed FT: No it hasn’t, at least not according to senior diplomats and people tracking operations in the country. It’s about 700k b/d Libya oil ministry: Oil production has risen! It’s at 700k b/d. It’s a Juneteenth miracle!

    oil output rises to about 700,000 bpd, minister says
    9 retweets 56 likes
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  4. Retweeted
    20 hours ago

    Last week, I spent some time with the German army in Gao and thanks to bad weather delaying my return flight also visited their air hub in Niamey. A few thoughts on the future of MINUSMA in a thread as the UN security council negotiates a renewal of the mandate ending in June 30.

    3 replies 30 retweets 56 likes
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  5. Retweeted
    Jun 17

    "Mercenaries are useless and dangerous. If you are counting on mercenaries to defend your state you will never be stable or secure, because mercenaries are ambitious, undisciplined, disloyal and quarrel among themselves." Macchiavelli, The Prince, 1513.

    5 replies 19 retweets 92 likes
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  6. Retweeted
    Jun 19

    Early results show France’s parliament will include 89 members of a party founded by a neo-Nazi convicted of Holocaust denial Mainstream French politicians normalized their hateful views The threat to French values never came from migrants. It comes from those who hate migrants

    3 replies 38 retweets 63 likes
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  7. Retweeted
    Jun 19

    The French Parliamentary have concluded with: - Macron losing his overall majority - a resurgent and unified left as the main opposition - the far-right far stronger than ever in an electoral system inherently unfavourable to it Beware, I have a Hot Take:

    3 replies 96 retweets 364 likes
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  8. Jun 19

    Excellent episode of the podcast in which explains what can be broadly described as a great game in a readjusting to a multipolar order and in which is already playing a major role, especially in the sector. Warmly recommended 👍

    ⚠️OUT NOW! 🎧A Mediterranean energy treble Arab Digest's welcomes top North Africa analyst Francis Ghilès to discuss the potential energy alliance between 🇮🇹Italy, 🇹🇳Tunisia & 🇩🇿Algeria
    1 retweet 4 likes
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  9. Retweeted
    Jun 18

    5. Nor does it bring peace to Israel and Palestine, or stability to the Middle East, which the experience thus far with the Abraham Accords already has proven. The intent was never to resolve the conflict, but to "move beyond it." >>

    1 reply 21 retweets 130 likes
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  10. Retweeted
    Jun 17

    : This Rapporteur condemns President Kais Saied’s persistent actions against judicial independence in Tunisia. On June 1, 2022, he dismissed 57 judges summarily.

    3 replies 37 retweets 54 likes
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  11. Retweeted
    Jun 17

    Any news about 's new ? As per Saied's decree-law 30, drafting commission should have submitted final draft few days ago. Instead, first draft has been elaborated and final document still under consideration..

    2 replies 1 retweet 7 likes
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  12. Retweeted
    Jun 17

    shakedown (ˈʃeɪkˌdaʊn): an extortion of money, as by blackmail (US, Slang)

    2 replies 2 retweets 16 likes
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  13. Retweeted
    Jun 16

    IS, through its weekly newspaper al-Naba, which came out yesterday, reiterates a call for hijrah (jihadist migration) to Africa, saying today it’s a key front for IS. "The scenes we see today in Africa are the same we saw yesterday [in past] in Syria and Iraq", IS adds /1

    Recruitment: In the video, IS tries to use its relative capabilities in Nigeria to invite Muslims from around the world, "especially those in Africa", to move to IS-held territory - a call for "hijrah" that IS has not frequently made since losing territory in Syria and Iraq /6
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    1 reply 58 retweets 84 likes
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  14. Retweeted
    Jun 17

    I'm less and less impressed by the Biden forpol/natsec team. Managing the Ukraine crisis as well as they have means their legacy is secured. But on MENA, it's back to the future. On Asia it's half-baked and phoned in. And on LatAm and Africa, it's asleep at the wheel.

    3 replies 16 retweets 132 likes
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  15. Retweeted
    Jun 15

    "White House aides feared the standoff with MBS was pushing the decades-long partnership with the kingdom to the brink and could end cooperation with Saudi for the remainder of Biden’s term — driving the country further into the arms of Russia/China"

    7 replies 30 retweets 45 likes
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  16. Retweeted
    Jun 16

    Italy has supported Germany's contention that Gazprom is lying about technical problems reducing gas supply As Eni is only getting 65% of the requested gas volumes from Gazprom, Russia's stealth weaponization of energy against Western Europe is gaining steam

    25 replies 163 retweets 790 likes
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  17. Retweeted
    Jun 16

    "If Saied succeeds in passing the new constitution, dismantling the independence of the judiciary and reversing post-revolution democratic gains, there are growing fears that few will be left to check his power."

    6 replies 8 retweets 16 likes
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  18. Retweeted
    Jun 16

    To prepare for an age of increased strategic , will need to strengthen its & practical with its across the world. For an in-depth on this matter, join us on June 23 ➡️

    , , and 7 others
    1 reply 2 retweets
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  19. Retweeted
    Jun 16

    Apparently needs to be said: a "constitution" negotiated by two constituency-less chambers, under the aegis of a UN mission whose future is uncertain, all in a capital of a country whose interventionism in Libya has been anything but constructive is a recipe for disaster.

    1 reply 10 retweets 33 likes
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  20. Retweeted
    Jun 16

    As nationwide public sector strike kicked off today, is holding gathering outside its HQ in . Up to 3 million workers could go on strike, closing 159 state-owned companies

    1 reply 7 retweets 10 likes
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  21. Retweeted
    Jun 14

    I have obtained some new emails re. General John Allen's dealings with the govt of Qatar, shortly before he became president of . Here goes... First email, paraphrased: We just met. You seem cool. Happy to fly with you to Doha. Just pay for my ticket. 🧵/1

    4 replies 51 retweets 194 likes
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