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primalpoly's profile
Geoffrey Miller
Geoffrey Miller
Geoffrey Miller
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@primalpoly

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Geoffrey MillerVerified account

@primalpoly

Psychology professor; wrote The Mating Mind, Spent, Mate, & Virtue Signaling. Agnostic centrist into evolution, sex, sentience, freedom & future.

New Mexico
primalpoly.com
Joined September 2015

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    1. Geoffrey Miller‏Verified account @primalpoly 17 Aug 2017
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      New study finds 536 genes that predict human intelligence (N=280,360 subjects) http://www.biorxiv.org/content/early/2017/08/17/176511 …pic.twitter.com/JHREKpDjds

      33 replies 256 retweets 498 likes
    2. Randall Parker‏ @futurepundit 17 Aug 2017
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      Replying to @primalpoly

      Have we reached enough known intelligence genetic variants to justify IVF embryo selection by genetic testing?

      1 reply 1 retweet 1 like
    3. Geoffrey Miller‏Verified account @primalpoly 17 Aug 2017
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      Replying to @futurepundit

      Not yet. The polygenic scores can still only predict a small % of IQ variance. But that will probably keep increasing in the next few years.

      1 reply 2 retweets 13 likes
    4. Peter Ellis‏ @pjie2 18 Aug 2017
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      Replying to @primalpoly @futurepundit

      Never. Each individual locus only affects intelligence to the tune of a fraction of a percent...

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Peter Ellis‏ @pjie2 18 Aug 2017
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      Replying to @pjie2 @primalpoly @futurepundit

      ... and IVF embryo selection can only select on at most a very few loci at once.

      3 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    6. Peter Ellis‏ @pjie2 18 Aug 2017
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      Replying to @pjie2 @primalpoly @futurepundit

      Think about it. Here we have 536 genes explaining 4% of intelligence variation.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Peter Ellis‏ @pjie2 18 Aug 2017
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      Replying to @pjie2 @primalpoly @futurepundit

      So the maximal IVF selection would give you a 4% tweak to intelligence one way of the other. Small beans, tho still ethically unacceptable.

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    8. Peter Ellis‏ @pjie2 18 Aug 2017
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      Replying to @pjie2 @primalpoly @futurepundit

      But to achieve even that minimal change the parents have to have variability at all 536 loci...

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Peter Ellis‏ @pjie2 18 Aug 2017
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      Replying to @pjie2 @primalpoly @futurepundit

      ... and the embryo has to get the "good" score on all of them. That's a 1 in 2^536 chance, give or take.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. Peter Ellis‏ @pjie2 18 Aug 2017
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      Replying to @pjie2 @primalpoly @futurepundit

      Fundamentally, with that many loci segregating, it will average out, and the embryo scores will only vary fractionally, no matter what.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Geoffrey Miller‏Verified account @primalpoly 18 Aug 2017
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      Replying to @pjie2 @futurepundit

      No they don't average out. If your reasoning worked, then siblings wouldn't differ in mental traits.

      10:45 AM - 18 Aug 2017
      • 1 Like
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      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. Peter Ellis‏ @pjie2 18 Aug 2017
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          Replying to @primalpoly @futurepundit

          Calculate it yourself if you don't believe me. If you have 536 genes that collectively explain 4% of the variation...

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        2. Peter Ellis‏ @pjie2 18 Aug 2017
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          Replying to @pjie2 @primalpoly @futurepundit

          ... and you have parents that are heterozygous at all loci (i.e. maximal variation), calculate the average difference between siblings.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
          3. End of conversation
        2. New conversation
        1. Peter Ellis‏ @pjie2 19 Aug 2017
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          Replying to @primalpoly @futurepundit

          The _additive_ genetic variation (i.e. what you could select for) averages out.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        2. Peter Ellis‏ @pjie2 19 Aug 2017
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          Replying to @pjie2 @primalpoly @futurepundit

          There will be other genetic effects on intelligence that are larger, but also inconsistent due to epistasis, environmental interactions etc

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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