I don't really see how this is up for debate: 538 relies heavily on polling data. (And yes, they gave Trump 1/3 chance to win in 2016, but they have also been overwhelmingly correct about most outcomes.)
In troubled times, which is the best predictor of US election outcomes?
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Google search data
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Voter polls might have been indicative in the past but right now they couldn't be more misleading. Silenced majority and all. Ever growing group of conservatives hiding their political beliefs.
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