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This scenario would not surprise me: Public fed up with lock down. Feds won't coordinate/fund widespread test & trace. States re-open w/ sub-par test & trace. Second wave worse than first. We don't lock down again. 600,000 dead in US by year end. Life goes on (for most).
This is horrifically likely, IMHO. And the job losses after a big second wave would be excruciating.
The alternative is that people choose as communities to mount a stronger opposition to COVID and make themselves safe like other countries and a few states.
No way. Communities are deeply divided over COVID right now. They are not suddenly going to come together and fight it.
All kinds of great hobbyist research and prediction going on. Almost none of it matches the sm median. Almost none of it is contested. The most interesting thing about one year from now will be the devaluing of authoritative sources
Remember when you were telling people to buy expensive dumb kits to store water in their tubs because "Corona has a 5% fatality rate and the water systems will shut down", yeah, i do.
It has a 1-2% fatality rate. Adjust your preparation accordingly.
We are right now testing~350,000 per day. That number will keep going up. A large second wave seems very unlikely.
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