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College is mostly about acquiring a diploma--as Nobel-winning signaling theory suggests. Taking a gap year means 1 less year of earning college-level income, plausibly one more year in your 60s when you'll have to work. Few who get into good colleges should take a gap year now. https://twitter.com/hpmacd/status/1263122183649472514 …
How much is the college income premium if you fully control for individual IQ & conscientiousness? Any good studies of that? Serious question.
"Controlling" isn't relevant under signaling theory. [As so often, multivariate regression intuition is a poor guide to cause and effect.] Under signaling theory, the diploma is the signal *to the employer* of the student's IQ, conscientiousness, etc.
So without the signal of a diploma [simple case], hiring's a bigger gamble to firms, and so firms rationally respond by assuming that the average person is of average productivity, pays everyone the average wage.
I suspect networking matters a great deal, especially for those from disadvantaged backgrounds.
Bryan Caplan's "The Case Against Education" explores data for 3 dif args r.e. educations link to higher income: ability (i.e. uni's self select those with higher ability), skills (college actually gives more skills), and signaling (just credentialing/easier sorting for employees
I believe he cites studies throughout that try to control for these various factors and assess their relative weights. Only heard him discuss on podcasts though not actually read the book as a disclaimer.
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