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primalpoly's profile
Geoffrey Miller
Geoffrey Miller
Geoffrey Miller
Verified account
@primalpoly

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Geoffrey MillerVerified account

@primalpoly

Psychology professor; wrote The Mating Mind, Spent, Mate, & Virtue Signaling. Agnostic centrist into evolution, sex, sentience, freedom & future.

New Mexico
primalpoly.com
Joined September 2015

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    Geoffrey Miller‏Verified account @primalpoly May 3
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    Geoffrey Miller Retweeted Geoffrey Miller

    Poll: 50% of people want to spend at least 10% of Gross World Product on reducing existential risks GWP = c. $100 trillion Global spending on reducing X-risks is c. $100 million/year (Ord, 2019, 'The Precipice') That's 0.001% of GWP Global spending on ice cream = $60 billionhttps://twitter.com/primalpoly/status/1256713214722637824 …

    Geoffrey Miller added,

    Geoffrey MillerVerified account @primalpoly
    Experts think humanity faces a 10-20% chance in this century of suffering a catastrophe that drives our species extinct forever. _If this estimate is right_, what % of gross world product (GWP) would it be reasonable to spend each year to reduce this risk to less than 2%?
    Show this thread
    3:59 PM - 3 May 2020
    • 10 Retweets
    • 59 Likes
    • Hello Grandma 😃 💚 ❤️ 🌎 Jaxon You-Shall-Not-Pass! Peterson JR Jari Kuikanmäki BAK Harry Davis Coasian Bargain Michael Bishop Vidur Kapur
    17 replies 10 retweets 59 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. David Ricardo‏ @constructal1 May 3
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        Replying to @primalpoly

        And I bet 95% of them plan on spending somebody ELSE’s share of that 10% of GWP.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. David Ricardo‏ @constructal1 May 3
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        Replying to @constructal1 @primalpoly

        A better poll might be “what percentage of your annual income would you be willing to allocate to X?”

        2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. 3 more replies
      1. New conversation
      2. Stefan Schubert‏ @StefanFSchubert May 3
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        Replying to @primalpoly

        We had a question on X-risk funding in our paper on the psychology of existential risk. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-50145-9 …pic.twitter.com/rlWiw9YKTb

        1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
      3. Stefan Goetz ...A hotbed of bad takes‏ @Tangl3dBank May 3
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        Replying to @StefanFSchubert @primalpoly

        🍨 = worth it. (I ate the marshmallow)

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. JuanD‏ @JuanDie95776550 May 3
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        Replying to @primalpoly

        US spending on Halloween costumes for pets: $490 million/year.https://www.marketwatch.com/story/americans-are-spending-almost-half-a-billion-on-halloween-costumes-for-their-pets-2019-10-22 …

        1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
      3. Xanax‏ @trentstrong401 May 3
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        Replying to @JuanDie95776550 @primalpoly

        Worth it.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      4. End of conversation
      1. Breakaway City‏ @Breakaway_City May 3
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        Replying to @primalpoly

        No one said ice cream spending would go down!

        0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
        Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. Undo
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      1. New conversation
      2. Kasper Kubica‏ @KasperKubica May 3
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        Replying to @primalpoly

        Key phrase in poll is “If this estimate is right” - I think most normies like me can’t intuitively accept the actual risk being nearly that high

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. Patrick Moore‏ @PatrickNMoore May 3
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        Replying to @KasperKubica @primalpoly

        May I suggest two books? 1- The Precipice - Toby Ord 2- The Black Swan - Nassim Nicholas Taleb Bonus book: Antifragile - Nassim Nicholas Taleb

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Milan Cirkovic‏ @MilanCirkovic3 May 3
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        Replying to @primalpoly

        Reminds me of a pertinent story about Stalin, Mikoyan and ice cream. Mikoyan was the food minister and he gave a report at the Party congress bragging about some icecream factories. After the session, outside the hall, Stalin remarked in passing, "Comrade Mikoyan, it seems... 1/2

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. Milan Cirkovic‏ @MilanCirkovic3 May 3
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        Replying to @MilanCirkovic3 @primalpoly

        ...that you're more concerned about icecream than about the World Revolution!" Mikoyan went home, wrote his will, told his wife that he'd be sent to a gulag or shot soon. But nothing happened, since it really was a joke. 🙃 2/2

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      4. End of conversation

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