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primalpoly's profile
Geoffrey Miller
Geoffrey Miller
Geoffrey Miller
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@primalpoly

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Geoffrey MillerVerified account

@primalpoly

Psychology professor; wrote The Mating Mind, Spent, Mate, & Virtue Signaling. Agnostic centrist into evolution, sex, sentience, freedom & future.

New Mexico
primalpoly.com
Joined September 2015

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    1. Geoffrey Miller‏Verified account @primalpoly May 2
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      Experts think humanity faces a 10-20% chance in this century of suffering a catastrophe that drives our species extinct forever. _If this estimate is right_, what % of gross world product (GWP) would it be reasonable to spend each year to reduce this risk to less than 2%?

      76 replies 26 retweets 53 likes
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    2. Emanuel Ajay Datt‏ @eadatt May 2
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      Replying to @primalpoly

      Humans overestimate their own influence over natural events as well as the risk from their own creations. Human extinction from a man made catastrophe is virtually impossible given all our species has endured over millenia

      1 reply 0 retweets 17 likes
      Geoffrey Miller‏Verified account @primalpoly May 2
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      Replying to @eadatt

      Not a single one of today's major anthropogenic X-risks -- such as nuclear war/winter, genetically engineered bioweapons, or AI -- existed 80 years ago. History is a very poor guide to technological X risks.

      4:46 PM - 2 May 2020
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      6 replies 0 retweets 48 likes
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        2. Emanuel Ajay Datt‏ @eadatt May 2
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          Replying to @primalpoly

          History shows technological advances, or what you are stating as anthropogenic risks, almost always turn out to be more innocuous than originally thought. 1/3

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        3. Emanuel Ajay Datt‏ @eadatt May 2
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          Replying to @eadatt @primalpoly

          Eg. The eruption of Krakatoa which affected global weather for 12-18 months, was almost equivalent to the global nuclear arsenal being detonated simultaneously in a single location. Implausible given payload delivery constraints 2/3

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
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        1. L. Ron Musk‏ @theKongfuzi May 2
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          Replying to @primalpoly @eadatt

          I don't know how much I buy the nuclear winter hypothesis which were based on models that need a serious re-visiting. Some scientists are going as far as calling it more like a "winter autumn" which would still require both the US and Russia to detonate their complete arsenal.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. L. Ron Musk‏ @theKongfuzi May 2
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          Replying to @primalpoly @eadatt

          What we have today is machine learning and we're still quite far away from generalized AI. A modern desktop computer should be able to create a full simulation of a bee brain but we have yet to see one made.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. PissedOffLawyer‏ @PissedOffLawyer May 2
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          Replying to @primalpoly @eadatt

          Exactly. It's like saying that there is no risk of death/injury from keeping an adult bear as a pet because nothing catastrophic happened while he was a baby. We didn't have our current capacity for destruction until very recently.

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        1. Radwyn Althor‏ @radwyn May 3
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          Replying to @primalpoly @eadatt

          True no doubt at present man is his own apex predator

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        1. ujkf99‏ @ujkf99 May 3
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          Replying to @primalpoly @eadatt

          If a handful of people hunker down with enough food to last a long time they can survive nuclear winter or pandemic, even if the worst case scenarios are correct. I could believe either of those could kill a large majority of people, but i don't see them causing extinction

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