Experts think humanity faces a 10-20% chance in this century of suffering a catastrophe that drives our species extinct forever. _If this estimate is right_, what % of gross world product (GWP) would it be reasonable to spend each year to reduce this risk to less than 2%?
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History shows technological advances, or what you are stating as anthropogenic risks, almost always turn out to be more innocuous than originally thought. 1/3
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Eg. The eruption of Krakatoa which affected global weather for 12-18 months, was almost equivalent to the global nuclear arsenal being detonated simultaneously in a single location. Implausible given payload delivery constraints 2/3
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I don't know how much I buy the nuclear winter hypothesis which were based on models that need a serious re-visiting. Some scientists are going as far as calling it more like a "winter autumn" which would still require both the US and Russia to detonate their complete arsenal.
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What we have today is machine learning and we're still quite far away from generalized AI. A modern desktop computer should be able to create a full simulation of a bee brain but we have yet to see one made.
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Exactly. It's like saying that there is no risk of death/injury from keeping an adult bear as a pet because nothing catastrophic happened while he was a baby. We didn't have our current capacity for destruction until very recently.
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True no doubt at present man is his own apex predator
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If a handful of people hunker down with enough food to last a long time they can survive nuclear winter or pandemic, even if the worst case scenarios are correct. I could believe either of those could kill a large majority of people, but i don't see them causing extinction
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