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Experts think humanity faces a 10-20% chance in this century of suffering a catastrophe that drives our species extinct forever. _If this estimate is right_, what % of gross world product (GWP) would it be reasonable to spend each year to reduce this risk to less than 2%?
PS source: for example, @tobyordoxford argued in 'The Precipice' (2019) that we're facing about a 1/6 chance of an existential catastrophe in the 21st century, from things like nuclear winter, bioterrorism, democratized WMDs, or bad AI. https://amzn.to/2vlco7y
that 1/6 number is fantasy no way to ground that in any kind of reality. you can make up anything you want there.
If the quoted probability range were 1-2%, would that change people's willingness to allocate funds? It would be informative to rerun the poll with an order-of-magnitude lower estimate to gauge probability sensitivity in your sample.
“bad AI” .... probly not the same as that shit running my pandora station I guess
I'm working my way through the book as well from your earlier recommendation.
Wait that is not extinction
I call bullshit on that. And as we go forward, chance of a complete extinction will decrease. Ask Elon.
No amount of predicted anthropogenic global warming can give us EXCINCTION FFS. Check how many degrees you need to make Siberia not habitable
"Experts". Because they have so much experience with planetary extinction events. Comical. Faculty lounge speculation.
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