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Experts think humanity faces a 10-20% chance in this century of suffering a catastrophe that drives our species extinct forever. _If this estimate is right_, what % of gross world product (GWP) would it be reasonable to spend each year to reduce this risk to less than 2%?
PS source: for example, @tobyordoxford argued in 'The Precipice' (2019) that we're facing about a 1/6 chance of an existential catastrophe in the 21st century, from things like nuclear winter, bioterrorism, democratized WMDs, or bad AI. https://amzn.to/2vlco7y
Is this from the book you mentioned the other day? The Precipice?
Yes, and from other reading.
Humans overestimate their own influence over natural events as well as the risk from their own creations. Human extinction from a man made catastrophe is virtually impossible given all our species has endured over millenia
Not a single one of today's major anthropogenic X-risks -- such as nuclear war/winter, genetically engineered bioweapons, or AI -- existed 80 years ago. History is a very poor guide to technological X risks.
What is an “expert” and will they pay a price if they are wrong?
The fundamental problem with this question is that you can't prove them wrong. Let's say someone predicts a 90% chance of a species-ending event based on facts then known, and we take action as a result and no such event occurs. Was the expert wrong?
Experts think is not very convincing. The protocol for determining credible versus "overly hypothetical" existential threats is likely suffering from too much uncertainty
I like the idea that humans are going to be replaced by AI. The whole idea of unconditional accelerationism is: "All human relationships are relationships of power. There is only one route to the destruction of power: Humanity must be overcome."https://cyclonotrope.wordpress.com/2017/03/08/acceleration-without-conditions/ …
Accelerationism only makes sense if you ignore the X risks from accelerationism. Which is to say, it makes no sense. IMHO.
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