Nobody seems to realize that if you flatten the curve too flat, you don't actually flatten it at all, you just move it to the right on the time axis.
Not usually a fan of @ezraklein, but this is a good, important, & sobering article.
tldr: the US doesn't have the political will or organization to prevent a catastrophic second wave after initial lockdowns end.
https://www.vox.com/platform/amp/2020/4/10/21215494/coronavirus-plans-social-distancing-economy-recession-depression-unemployment?__twitter_impression=true …
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Having more time to be better prepared with tests, PPE, contact tracing plans, etc. has value. And of course more time to develop treatments and vaccines.
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An incredibly smart reporter who, on the other hand, founded http://Vox.com .
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Yea, there's denial about this across the political spectrum imo.
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How abt “smart” distancing? Some things are low risk (for COVID19), like touring on a motorcycle or visiting a park. Rn we’re browbeating such ppl for not staying home...
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I notice he completely ignores the possibility of a reliable treatment becoming available. I think that in a couple of weeks, once all the data has been collected, there will be a regimen that will avoid swamping ICUs with people requiring ventilators.
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Nor should we do a second lockdown. They have revised down to 60k “with lockdown” but that’s after it was 200k “with lockdown”. And they’ve admitted lying already The second one will hold in the EU because they are compliant. Here we will have some tension. Hopefully enough.
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Neither does Canada
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