6.6 million people unemployed last week.
3.3 million the week before.
Dow is up.
https://twitter.com/seungminkim/status/1245700929434931200 …
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Did we experience a larger, sharper drop than the Great Depression? And they had periods of 25% unemployment.
Spanish Flu caused a -12 % bottom for Dow Jones. Certainly causalities have changed from then, in many a way, so it won't serve as a predictive benchmark. The drop was so fast as to indicate of big panic & unknowns. Bad(dish) - not doom's - day scenario was priced in 2 weeks ago
That's why I used 'a lot' instead of 'most'/'all'. If 20 % is likely, I agree with you. Many professional investors agree with you that the market is weirdly - or irrationally - bullish at the moment. Volatility of Boeing serves as a prime example of lack of long-term insight.
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