6.6 million people unemployed last week.
3.3 million the week before.
Dow is up. 
https://twitter.com/seungminkim/status/1245700929434931200 …
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1. The Dow is not "the economy", it's a bizarrely-weighted index of 30 arbitrary huge companies none of which had significant layoffs. 2. More useful indices like S&P 500 or Russell 2000 fell by 35% anticipating these unemployment numbers weeks ago. That's the point of markets.
Do we really believe that investors weeks ago expected 10 million unemployed in the last two weeks? Maybe they did, but I'm dubious that the full impact of this recession has been priced in yet.
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I'm not sure the market under-reacted. A 35% drop reflects something equivalent to a 35% drop in the profits of all current large US companies FOREVER. A couple of years of heightened unemployment wouldn't do that. The drop may have already anticipated bad news for a long time.
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Fair point. But S&P 500 P/E ratios (c. 18.6) are still a bit above long-term historical means (c. 15.8)?
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China’s had a V-shaped stock market recovery that bottomed as new cases peaked. US investors learned from that. The big question for investors is, can we test & trace we’ll enough to avoid a second wave.
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What lessons did US investors learn though? That a nation's economy _might_ recover quickly _if_ the virus is restricted to one geographical area and strongly contained there? I'm not sure that generalizes to us here....
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Here is some crude maths... even if S&P made zero for two full years... http://brooklyninvestor.blogspot.com/ Market is already off multiples of that unlikely scenario.
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Lol "Recession"
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