Geoffrey Miller on Twitter: "Are there any evidence-based predictions about what happens to the commercial real estate market during & after the pandemic, if many businesses go bankrupt? Asking for a friend."

@primalpoly

Psychology professor; wrote The Mating Mind, Spent, Mate, & Virtue Signaling. Agnostic centrist into evolution, sex, sentience, freedom & future.

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1. Andreas Backhaus‏ @AndreasShrugged Mar 25
  
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  Currently, a lot of apartments are being put on the market for renting or buying, as the Airbnb market has collapsed.
  
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1. JakeTheHuman28 ‏ @JakeTheHuman28 Mar 25
  
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  "Evidence-based" gets thrown around a lot
  
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1. BAK‏ @Bakpfeife Mar 25
  
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  No, because if there were people would already be capitalizing on them. And currently its really hard to capitalize on that market. Waiting the thing out probably is the only way to win.
  
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1. Henry Beardsell‏ @HenryBeardsell Mar 25
  
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  Rents in London may well tank this summer. If landlords are highly indebted there may be repossessions, however the cost of money (bank rate at 0.1%) is exceptionally cheap. A mln costs £100 per wk at 0.5%. If tenants swarm back to Ldn in the autumn en masse, rents will climb.
  
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1. Peter Muench‏ @brainmuenchies Mar 25
  
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  Hey Geoffrey, this is my discipline. Happy to chat if you'd like my thoughts: https://www.collierscanada.com/en-CA/Experts/Peter-Muench …
  
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1. Brando Calrissian‏ @Bubba_Lou_ Mar 25
  
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  Firesale!! Repurposing!! Bankruptcy!! What evidence based predictions are available during this unprecedented crisis? Particularly given the changes in commerce brought on by the interwebs
  
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1. Bill Bloggins‏ @TheBloggins Mar 25
  
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  The mortgage lenders will try and provide some amnesty for those who stop paying over the next few weeks (stop a payment/skip a payment plans). But ultimately, if banks and mortgage companies aren't getting any income, they will start calling in loans. So a bearish outlook.
  
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1. Edwin J. Pole II‏ @ejpoleii Mar 25
  
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  My instinct tells me there is an inverse relationship. High fatalities -> high bankruptcies -> empty houses -> low real estate prices. However, inflation due to stupid government policies must be taken into account.
  
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