Why What Does Not Kill Us Makes Us Panic: Spreading "risk literacy," by Gerd Gigerenzer (the cognitive psychologist who has worked to enhance statistical reasoning, and who is the main scientific critic of Kahneman & Tversky's "heuristics & biases").https://prosyn.org/Lb5UTJ2
With all due respect to Gerd, it's hard to see Italy or Iran as an example of people over-reacting too early to a minor risk that proved to be overblown. Kinda the opposite IMHO.
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Pinker doesn’t understand risk
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Taleb doesn't understand Pinker.
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Yeah, I think psychology hasn't necessarily been that helpful during the Covid-19 crisis.https://twitter.com/StefanFSchubert/status/1239518892621471744 …
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I'm surprised to see this from Gigerenzer, an otherwise sharp critic of behavioral psychology. You'd think he would understand the rational defensibility of heuristics for avoiding catastrophic loss — especially when they turn out to be right!
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No consequentialist arguments can be made until all consequences of the actions are observed. It is very possible to make it worse.
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I fear if N Taleb saw this his eyes would explode with apoplectic rage
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paper conflates risk with (Knightian) uncertainty. Under uncertainty with worst cases being very bad, it is PERFECTLY RATIONAL to adopt a maximin strategy and may be the best policy. These sorts of papers do a real disservice by confusing these basic distinctions.
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“What doesn’t kill you” he must not be talking about COVID-19
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