Too early to call surely? There’s a long way to go. As Solon said: “Never call a man happy till he’s dead”
This pandemic is sparking the biggest shake-up of relative geopolitical status, prestige, & soft power that we've seen since 1989 or 1945. Everyone can see the pros & cons of different governance systems all too clearly.https://twitter.com/StefanFSchubert/status/1239586489555714050 …
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A failed defense will mean needless deaths - a lot of them. The other things will follow, of course.
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South Korea, France, Germany, Taiwan: good. United States, Iran: bad.
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Oh if you were in germany or france you wouldn't say "good".
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Israel will probably come out on top here. https://twitter.com/adamalethier/status/1239499122958315522?s=21 …https://twitter.com/AdamAlethier/status/1239499122958315522 …
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I think this is going to undo the liberal world order of trade and investment. It seems likely at this point that we're going to return to a world that's much less cooperative, less integrated, less globalized, and more zero sum.
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If you're interested in how this is likely to play out, I strongly recommend 3 books by
@PeterZeihan https://www.amazon.com/Accidental-Superpower-Generation-American-Preeminence/dp/1455583685/ … https://www.amazon.com/Absent-Superpower-Revolution-Without-America/dp/099850520X/ …https://www.amazon.com/Disunited-Nations-Scramble-Power-Ungoverned/dp/0062913689 … - 1 more reply
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Unfortunately what seems to work best in this case is centralization and authoritarianism.
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