Before this year, what % of professional investors (at banks, pensions, hedge funds, etc) spent more than an hour in total seriously considering how a global pandemic might affect the economy?
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Yes, because risk modeling does not care about the source, only that there’s always risk.
Some risks undergo exponential growth if they hit; others don't. Some risks can infect political leaders and impose continuity-of-governance issues & geopolitical instability; others don't. That seems worth modeling?
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Pandemic panic is very difficult to model. This is also the first real occurrence so there's no data to model by..
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No. Managing risk doesn’t mean determining the source. I went 30/70 stocks/bonds in June 2019, based upon my algorithms. I’ll be buying several times as the the S&P continues to drop. I’ll shift to 50/50 then 60/50 and maybe 70/30 as the the market drops from here.
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