Before this year, what % of professional investors (at banks, pensions, hedge funds, etc) spent more than an hour in total seriously considering how a global pandemic might affect the economy?
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Follow up question: if professional investors didn't seriously include pandemic risks & effects in their financial models before this year, did they fail in their fiduciary duties?
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Swiss Re has been involved in insuring, reinsuring, and offering capital market products (like Cat bonds) against pandemics for a long time. These are not unknown risks at all. Search Swiss Re and pandemic. See this from 12 years ago even: https://media.swissre.com/documents/pandemic_influenza_a_21st_century_model_en.pdf …
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Thoughtful risk managers and investors have been considering and addressing this risk. Here in action:https://www.theinsurer.com/news/world-bank-pandemic-cat-bond-poised-to-be-triggered-secondary-market-trading-down/7349.article …
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it'll take a month or so and it will re-normalize once everyone realizes that the infection rates are non-monotonic not purely exponential.
End of conversation
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Yes. Many experts have been warning for years, especially since the SARS and MERS scares. But, unfortunately...
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Very few economists can predict a recession and few can identify its main cause. The same goes for pandemic related recessions.
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How about account for asteroid strikes? Volcanic eruptions? Tsunamis? Richter-8 earthquakes? Random, rare natural events are, by their nature, not suitable to modeling do to their random and rare nature.
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