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This is considered one of the most important papers on the subject: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=891620 …
Yes, that's the best paper around, I confirm. Catastrophic declines of countries (China/Russia) only shave about 0.1% of average annual return for a global portfolio.
Real returns: ~5% stocks ~2% bonds ~0-0.5% cash is a good estimate.
The same trio wrote the book "Triumph of the Optimists", which concludes that the average real return on stocks is about 7%.pic.twitter.com/GvOwnYNaxN
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