How accurate are predictions about current political leaders' long-run effects?
Replying to @bryan_caplan
Low, because leaders' net utilitarian impact is hard to assess except post hoc. Example: one of the most important things Khrushchev did in late 50s was to allow Viktor Zhdanov's advocacy of smallpox eradication, which prevented 20 to 50 million deaths. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viktor_Zhdanov …
10:29 AM - 11 Feb 2020
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