A thread about why counting Trump out in the upcoming election would be a mistake. https://twitter.com/NathanKalmoe/status/1190272743763140608 …
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A rational Bayesian can have any prior and still be a rational Bayesian
IMHO a prior inconsistent with history isn't a rational prior.
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Any prior is consistent with Bayesian rationality; Bayesian rationality concerns only how priors are updated conditional on data. You are simply redefining "rationality" to mean a certain type of prior, which is fine, but it's not Bayesian.
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tfw you realize you're only Bayesian-adjacent.
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But then you have to choose data, choose the process for forming the prior etc. This regresses to infinity.
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