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Here Taleb reveals such a basic & fundamental misunderstanding of psychometrics that he should just be quiet about IQ. Measurement unreliability means any observed correlations between measures and outcomes are _more_ impressive, not _less_ impressive. Think about it for a minutehttps://twitter.com/jonatanpallesen/status/1156609793110544385 …
For more on this 'regression dilution' effect and correction for attenuation, which Taleb sadly didn't bother to understand before making this embarrassing blunder, see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regression_dilution … https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correction_for_attenuation …
Be prepared to join the group of people he calls idiots.
I've been in that group for the last several months, based on me understanding intelligence research and Taleb not understanding intelligence research.
He's a fraud and a hypocritehttps://twitter.com/clairlemon/status/1156749156603461634?s=20 …
I THINK YOU GUYS NEED TO STEP BACK AND START FROM FIRST PRINCIPLES
The first principles are called psychometric principles, which anybody commenting on psychometrics should try to understand.
I tried listening to a podcast where when claims GMOs are bad because "precautionary principal.". It was nonsense. Just because he correctly called the 2008 collapse doesn't mean he is well versed beyond market behavior.
You are giving him too much credit about knowing market behavior. He was right a couple of times, but eventually closed shop, stopped trading and began flaneuring. Not enough data.
He is indeed correct that I don't get that. What does it mean to not know a point on a distribution with x% uncertainty? Where did he pull the oddly specific number 34% from. Lolpic.twitter.com/X1t6Gt4PJY
Half 1 sigma is 34 percent
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