The absolute #1 undisputed worst, silliest, wrongest prediction from 1930.
(via @bayes_baes)pic.twitter.com/nHSdseQWta
Translation: if and when voters understand psychology, they'll become less vulnerable to psychological manipulation by party propaganda. 1) How is that silly? 2) Isn't this a future you would want?
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I think
@primalpoly translated it into an “if P, then Q” and I think@Noahpinion was reading it as an “(if P, then Q) and P will happen.” The mistake in the prediction, then, seems to be the point that P will happen (voters will be educated about psychology). -
And I don’t think
@Noahpinion said anything about the desirability of Q (voters less susceptible to psychological manipulation).
End of conversation
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It is a laudable goal, but it badly underestimated the incentives for the development of offensive capabilities vs the incentives for citizens to develop and deploy defensive capabilities.
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Has a psychological study shown that understanding psychology makes manipulation less effective for the median population? I'd reckon: 1. No 2. Disparities in understanding are easier to exploit than the religious orthodoxy it replaces.
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Scientific Psychology pfffffftttt....
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It’s silly to think that voters — or anyone — can be made “immune to... illogical thinking”. Human nature to put emotional appeals over logic. Most people neither want nor even have the capacity to think logically. They just blindly follow their emotions.
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He means things couldn't have turned out more differently than the prediction
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Yes but you're a professor of psychology and you’re still vulnerable to psychological manipulation by party propaganda. So what chance do the rest of us have?
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Do you think that it's likely to "destroy the possibility of conducting politics along party lines," or that "voters...will be immune from specious appeals to sentiment and illogical reasoning?" Reducing that to 'forewarned is forearmed" seems disingenuous.
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