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Personally I think we are going to see farther and farther right results and it will be because the Left took out the reasonable center-right in painting it as bigoted. This is opening the door to right wing extremism. That is, we are in the process of creating the right we fear.
Everyone is also realizing the strategic benefits of lying to pollsters, so the mainstream political/media machine can be blindsided more easily.
Which is more likely, a large number of disparate individuals, the world over, have begun lying to pollsters OR a small number of networked pollsters have been fudging the numbers?
By fudging the numbers I mean they have built shared assumptions into their methodologies and created what they perceived to be best practices across the field, which have slowly made it impossible for them to take accurate polls or to self-correct.
Some would argue that it's no sin to lie to those who will only use that information to manipulate you.
New methods must be devised.
This is where prediction markets come in.
I highly doubt disparate individuals are conspiring to lie to pollsters to throw off the mainstream media. Besides, the polls (at least in US ‘16) were only off by a few points maximum. Even in Aus, it was close. No need to make such broad extrapolations from these events.
Is this an interesting side note or do you feel that strategic deception is a significant contributor?
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