"Where there's smoke there's fire" isn't even close to true. Why do we invoke it as if it were? Let's replace it with "Where there's thunder, there's lightning".
'Where there's smoke there's fire' = 'Rumors are never false'
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It’s not as catchy, but ‘Where there’s smoke, there’s a statistically greater chance of a fire being there also, compared to where there’s no smoke’.
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It should be: Where there's smoke, don't be sure about the fire until you locate it.
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