AGI is the worst threat? Okay.
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> None of the others will wipe out 100% of the individuals of our species. A large enough asteroid, a pandemic, nuclear war of sufficient magnitude, a super-volcanic eruption of significant strength, etc all could risk total extinction of the human species.
Asteroids and suoervolcanos coukd kill everyone but they're very low probability per generation. Your other two risks I already mentioned. The most dangerous pandemics will come from engineered bioweapons.
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Per generation, perhaps, though the Yellowstone super-volcano has a pretty good chance of erupting in the next 100 years, and we don't know much about the others. Regardless, I don't see AGI as a major threat. We have to take the probability of AGI developing, then the
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probability of it even being hostile towards humans, then the probability of it being able to do much to harm humans, etc. Multiply those together and well... Besides, AGI is the only option where we really continue, even if the species dies out.
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I wonder what your thoughts on pandemics are now.
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