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primalpoly's profile
Geoffrey Miller
Geoffrey Miller
Geoffrey Miller
Verified account
@primalpoly

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Geoffrey MillerVerified account

@primalpoly

Evolutionary psych professor; wrote some books. Into the deep past & far future, esp. genes, minds, civilizations, sex, freedom, families, & Effective Altruism.

New Mexico
primalpoly.com
Joined September 2015

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    Geoffrey Miller‏Verified account @primalpoly Nov 1

    Relative magnitude of risks to humanity: Antares = artificial general intelligence Betelgeuse = global thermonuclear war Aldeberan = terrorist-engineered bioweapons Rigel = China's asymmetric warfare capabilities & soft power Our sun = any possible outcome of US electionspic.twitter.com/yf01fDweca

    8:48 AM - 1 Nov 2018
    • 46 Retweets
    • 181 Likes
    • Chimeracide Samuel Kleiner Darren Jeremy Herrick FoxyWeather123 Richard Newton Damian All The Fiends Swan Ronson
    25 replies 46 retweets 181 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Gabriel Ehrnst Grundin‏ @GGrundin Nov 1
        Replying to @primalpoly

        Gabriel Ehrnst Grundin Retweeted The Verge

        Speaking of Chinese soft power, what are your thoughts on this?https://twitter.com/verge/status/1057689381056733184 …

        Gabriel Ehrnst Grundin added,

        The VergeVerified account @verge
        The Wandering Earth could be China’s breakout sci-fi blockbuster film https://www.theverge.com/2018/10/31/18047346/the-wandering-earth-trailer-cixin-liu-chinese-science-fiction?utm_campaign=theverge&utm_content=chorus&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter … pic.twitter.com/BIaYlooeQI
        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      3. Geoffrey Miller‏Verified account @primalpoly Nov 1
        Replying to @GGrundin

        Looking forward to it! Love Chinese science fiction.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. David Kieltyka‏ @Tele1953 Nov 1
        Replying to @primalpoly

        Perhaps true enough, but ppl live in a particular place at a particular time & thus *experience* the relative magnitudes in reverse order.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Geoffrey Miller‏Verified account @primalpoly Nov 1
        Replying to @Tele1953

        That's exactly the problem...

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. seb‏ @SebsShoes Nov 1
        Replying to @primalpoly

        Would climate change be Jupiter or more of a Pluto?

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Geoffrey Miller‏Verified account @primalpoly Nov 1
        Replying to @SebsShoes

        More of a Pollux, mostly because its side effects could trigger political tensions that lead to nuclear war.

        1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
      4. seb‏ @SebsShoes Nov 1
        Replying to @primalpoly

        Oops, right, stars. Fair enough!

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      5. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Qbix‏ @QbixApps Nov 1
        Replying to @primalpoly

        You missed climate change, rampant deforestation, desertification, acidification of oceans and loss of biodiversity. On purpose, because you don’t believe in the #Anthropocene?

        2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      3. Geoffrey Miller‏Verified account @primalpoly Nov 1
        Replying to @QbixApps

        I believe in climate change, but it's nowhere near an existential risk. It's more important than midterms though.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      4. 1 more reply
      1. New conversation
      2. Daniel Goldman‏ @alc_anthro Nov 1
        Replying to @primalpoly

        AGI is the worst threat? Okay.

        2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Headlines From the Future‏ @Headlines_From Nov 1
        Replying to @alc_anthro @primalpoly

        None of the others will wipe out 100% of the individuals of our species. But as we can see in our world now, a more intelligent species can easily drive less intelligent species to extinction.

        2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      4. Daniel Goldman‏ @alc_anthro Nov 1
        Replying to @Headlines_From @primalpoly

        > None of the others will wipe out 100% of the individuals of our species. A large enough asteroid, a pandemic, nuclear war of sufficient magnitude, a super-volcanic eruption of significant strength, etc all could risk total extinction of the human species.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      5. Geoffrey Miller‏Verified account @primalpoly Nov 1
        Replying to @alc_anthro @Headlines_From

        Asteroids and suoervolcanos coukd kill everyone but they're very low probability per generation. Your other two risks I already mentioned. The most dangerous pandemics will come from engineered bioweapons.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      6. Daniel Goldman‏ @alc_anthro Nov 1
        Replying to @primalpoly @Headlines_From

        Per generation, perhaps, though the Yellowstone super-volcano has a pretty good chance of erupting in the next 100 years, and we don't know much about the others. Regardless, I don't see AGI as a major threat. We have to take the probability of AGI developing, then the

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      7. Daniel Goldman‏ @alc_anthro Nov 1
        Replying to @alc_anthro @primalpoly @Headlines_From

        probability of it even being hostile towards humans, then the probability of it being able to do much to harm humans, etc. Multiply those together and well... Besides, AGI is the only option where we really continue, even if the species dies out.

        3 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      8. TheBandFragile‏ @TheBandFragile Nov 1
        Replying to @alc_anthro @primalpoly @Headlines_From

        Sci-fi deals with dystopian scenarios because there's no drama to be had from the quiet techno-optimistic future where the wealth creation process is automated by human technology, and we all get to be super rich, the population declines to sustainable and we explore the stars

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      9. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Rabbi Josh Yuter‏Verified account @JYuter Nov 1
        Replying to @primalpoly

        What if you say "Betelgeuse" three times?

        2 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
      3. Dirk J All Day‏ @DJD_Allday Nov 1
        Replying to @JYuter @primalpoly

        Apparently the world blows up.

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. James R Williamson‏ @jrwill9 Nov 1
        Replying to @primalpoly

        I'd swap the Betelgeuse and Aldeberan associations.

        0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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