Speaking of Chinese soft power, what are your thoughts on this?https://twitter.com/verge/status/1057689381056733184 …
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Speaking of Chinese soft power, what are your thoughts on this?https://twitter.com/verge/status/1057689381056733184 …
Looking forward to it! Love Chinese science fiction.
Perhaps true enough, but ppl live in a particular place at a particular time & thus *experience* the relative magnitudes in reverse order.
That's exactly the problem...
Would climate change be Jupiter or more of a Pluto?
More of a Pollux, mostly because its side effects could trigger political tensions that lead to nuclear war.
Oops, right, stars. Fair enough!
You missed climate change, rampant deforestation, desertification, acidification of oceans and loss of biodiversity. On purpose, because you don’t believe in the #Anthropocene?
I believe in climate change, but it's nowhere near an existential risk. It's more important than midterms though.
AGI is the worst threat? Okay.
None of the others will wipe out 100% of the individuals of our species. But as we can see in our world now, a more intelligent species can easily drive less intelligent species to extinction.
> None of the others will wipe out 100% of the individuals of our species. A large enough asteroid, a pandemic, nuclear war of sufficient magnitude, a super-volcanic eruption of significant strength, etc all could risk total extinction of the human species.
Asteroids and suoervolcanos coukd kill everyone but they're very low probability per generation. Your other two risks I already mentioned. The most dangerous pandemics will come from engineered bioweapons.
Per generation, perhaps, though the Yellowstone super-volcano has a pretty good chance of erupting in the next 100 years, and we don't know much about the others. Regardless, I don't see AGI as a major threat. We have to take the probability of AGI developing, then the
probability of it even being hostile towards humans, then the probability of it being able to do much to harm humans, etc. Multiply those together and well... Besides, AGI is the only option where we really continue, even if the species dies out.
Sci-fi deals with dystopian scenarios because there's no drama to be had from the quiet techno-optimistic future where the wealth creation process is automated by human technology, and we all get to be super rich, the population declines to sustainable and we explore the stars
What if you say "Betelgeuse" three times?
Apparently the world blows up.
I'd swap the Betelgeuse and Aldeberan associations.
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