False flag attacks have been common for centuries. Given any act of apparent political terrorism, journalists should always be asking: Why these targets? Why this timing? Who really benefits? Could this be yet another false flag? Not asking = incentivizing more false flags.
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That's not Bayesian. A Bayesian point would start by looking at the relative rates of ordinary attacks versus "false flag" attacks.
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Well, you said “Not asking = incentivizing *more* glaze flags” This means you’re presuming this was a false flag. You may not have meant that but it is what you wrote.
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Can you give an example of a false flag political operation in the last 50 years?
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