If social desirability bias didn't have a big impact on responses to survey questions like this, maybe the pollsters would have predicted the 2016 election outcome?
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The models that predicted a certain Hillary victory were aggregators of state-level polls that (stupidly) assumed perfectly correlated state-level polling errors, if I recall correctly.
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Their job wasn't to predict the popular vote. Their job was to predict who wins the election. The popular vote is totally irrelevant given how US elections work.
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The popular vote predictions were spot-on, better than 2012.
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If this theory were true you would have expected Trump to out-perform more in Blue States, but the opposite was the case.https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/shy-voters-probably-arent-why-the-polls-missed-trump/ …
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