Catherine PorterVerified account

1/I spent last night and today talking to trade experts/labor lawyers/economists about the value of Nafta to the Canadian economy, and what it would mean if there was no free trade deal with its biggest trade partner and only neighbor.

2/What they said was surprising. Although trade with the US is essential with the economy, Nafta – in terms of no-tariffs – is not. That’s because most assume without Nafta, the two countries would follow the WTO’s Most Favored Nation rates which are v low for most products.

3/Here’s one report that shows the end of Nafta would cost Canada’s economic growth just 1 to 2 per cent over 5-10 years. http://www.rbc.com/economics/economic-reports/pdf/other-reports/NAFTA_Nov2017.pdf …

4/What Nafta does do, though, is provide certainty for international investors to put their money and businesses into Canada, as a perch into the North American market – because the rules of engagement are there and terms are set.

5/So no Nafta might drive away investment, which would be a bad thing for Canada’s economy.

6/Here’s one interesting thought economist Dan Ciuriuk gave me though. President Trump doesn’t follow rules generally. He is not consistent. So a Nafta agreement with him might still drive away international investment into Canada.

7/I loved what he said: “If you are not prepared to follow the rules, singing onto an agreement hardly gives you any protection. Tomorrow’s Tweet can undo anything you just signed.”