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politicalmath's profile
PoliMath
PoliMath
PoliMath
@politicalmath

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PoliMath

@politicalmath

Only marginally compelling and occasionally accurate, sometime writer, engineer, cake-baker. Writes Marginally Compelling newsletter http://polimath.substack.com 

Gulf of Guinea
polimath.substack.com
Joined April 2009

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    1. PoliMath‏ @politicalmath Apr 27

      PoliMath Retweeted Nate Silver

      One thing I would love people who think Florida is cooking the books to really think about is: How, exactly, are they doing this? Walk me through this process.https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1387096352845225984 …

      PoliMath added,

      Nate SilverVerified account @NateSilver538
      There's a lot of "Florida is cooking the books!" in the replies, which is an ungrounded conspiracy theory. If you don't trust their COVID data, look at excess deaths. Excess deaths in FL are 17% above normal, which is BETTER than the US average of 21%. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/01/14/us/covid-19-death-toll.html …
      Show this thread
      41 replies 122 retweets 688 likes
      Show this thread
    2. PoliMath‏ @politicalmath Apr 27

      Deaths are reported to the state from the county health departments Are you saying that DeSantis is changing the numbers from the county health departments? So we would get the right number if we added up the individual counties individually?

      1 reply 14 retweets 157 likes
      Show this thread
      PoliMath‏ @politicalmath Apr 27

      Or are you saying every county health department in Florida is in on the scam? So even the blue-est of the blue counties in Florida is in cahoots with DeSantis to lie to their constituents?

      10:35 AM - 27 Apr 2021
      • 16 Retweets
      • 181 Likes
      • The Hon. PM Justin Smithers 🇨🇦 Captain NoPants Yarnfanatic gopackjo summer eilidh Nathaniel Den Zzar Occham's Eraser Inkyswill
      5 replies 16 retweets 181 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. PoliMath‏ @politicalmath Apr 27

          Do you think it's a definition problem? Do you think Florida defines "death due to COVID" differently than everyone else? Are you aware those definitions are actual medical codes? So you'd have to get every hospital and doctor in Florida to be in on this conspiracy.

          5 replies 12 retweets 135 likes
          Show this thread
        3. PoliMath‏ @politicalmath Apr 27

          Do you know that in many cases hospitals report their numbers directly to the state health department as well as the county health department? Did you know Florida publishes hospital-by-hospital numbers? So if the state was changing them, the hospital would see that.

          6 replies 15 retweets 133 likes
          Show this thread
        4. PoliMath‏ @politicalmath Apr 27

          PoliMath Retweeted Jinkinson Smith

          This is a pretty decent attempt to come up with some coherent evidence of "hidden deaths" My follow-up question would be: What evidence would you accept as an indicator that these claims weren't true?https://twitter.com/Jinkinson1/status/1386678738344194051 …

          PoliMath added,

          Jinkinson Smith @Jinkinson1
          Replying to @mmpadellan
          When someone accuses anyone pointing to underreporting in these states of promoting a "CoNsPiRaCy ThEoRy" point them to these articles: https://www.texasobserver.org/how-flawed-death-investigations-can-leave-texas-covid-19-deaths-uncounted/ … https://www.sun-sentinel.com/coronavirus/fl-ne-covid-deaths-florida-study-ss-prem-20210331-a4rnsenzajdd5nnwzm2fkg5g5y-story.html …
          2 replies 4 retweets 71 likes
          Show this thread
        5. PoliMath‏ @politicalmath Apr 27

          For those who are uninterested in giving bad journalism a click, here are those articles on http://archive.is  https://archive.is/tRLye#selection-3211.0-3324.0 … https://archive.is/6541f 

          2 replies 3 retweets 61 likes
          Show this thread
        6. PoliMath‏ @politicalmath Apr 27

          The problem these articles have is that they don't follow up on any of this. If their claims are true, then we should see the COVID death disparity show up in the excess deaths difference, which you can't hide. But we don't see that disparity.

          1 reply 6 retweets 87 likes
          Show this thread
        7. PoliMath‏ @politicalmath Apr 27

          The end result is people end up cornering themselves into the position that Texas and Florida are massively undercounting COVID deaths (presumably coding them as non-COVID) but those non-COVID aren't counting toward excess deaths either, essentially disappearing from the data

          8 replies 5 retweets 84 likes
          Show this thread
        8. PoliMath‏ @politicalmath Apr 27

          By the way, this is why Nate Silver keeps pointing to the excess deaths data. He is pointing out that we should see *really* bad and unexplainable excess deaths out of Florida if they were hiding deaths.

          2 replies 12 retweets 147 likes
          Show this thread
        9. PoliMath‏ @politicalmath Apr 27

          There are only two states that have abnormally high excess death data that isn't coded as COVID New York and Michigan

          9 replies 54 retweets 273 likes
          Show this thread
        10. End of conversation
        1. Tom Quinn  ⚜️‏ @doublespeak152 Apr 27
          Replying to @politicalmath

          The bluest counties are the most populated counties too. Where the vast majority of cases are

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. ¡K Smith!‏ @K_Smith_MI Apr 27
          Replying to @politicalmath

          Another question for the "FL and TX are hiding Covid deaths!1!!" people is... Why are so many of us **who don't like DeSantis, Abbott, etc.** saying that there is no evidence of a cover up by DeSantis, Abbott, etc? Are we part of the plot?

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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