Today's newsletter was not what I had been planning to write. It's about how we're so much better at *knowing* about COVID but how that doesn't necessarily translate into better actions.https://polimath.substack.com/p/watching-a-wave-come-in …
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feels like masks are a bit like bicycle helmets
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I feel like this is where strong government action makes sense, if you just tell people that we're in the middle of a surge and to be careful, people will naturally do less risky activities (going to bars, movies, restaurants, etc), but these businesses will struggle (1)
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At some point, human behavior changes. We saw that over the summer in the Sun Belt. Some people are changing their behavior now, more will as the spread gets closer and closer to home, some just won't. It's going to be regrettable that more didn't sooner....
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....there will be targeted closures of bars and restos in some places eventually. Probably some schools will go backwards, too. It's a shame that we are not united and willing to do the easy things to avoid the hard.
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Are you sure masks are reducing risk? What if they're making the problem worse?
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I've seen very little evidence that masks make things worse and some good evidence that they make things somewhat better. Somewhat. How much is still a big question.
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This is the junkiest “analysis” of the covid history, against stiff competition.
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I presume you have something better?
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I have an honest question about this graph. It lists % of people who know someone who has symptoms... not who actually have confirmed case. That is a pretty wide range of symptoms that mimic many other things. Is there a similar graph that does actual cases against mask use?
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