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politicalmath's profile
PoliMath
PoliMath
PoliMath
@politicalmath

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PoliMath

@politicalmath

Only marginally compelling and occasionally accurate, sometime writer, engineer, cake-baker. Writes Marginally Compelling newsletter http://polimath.substack.com 

Gulf of Guinea
polimath.substack.com
Joined April 2009

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    1. PoliMath‏ @politicalmath 27 Oct 2020

      Today's newsletter was not what I had been planning to write. It's about how we're so much better at *knowing* about COVID but how that doesn't necessarily translate into better actions.https://polimath.substack.com/p/watching-a-wave-come-in …

      4 replies 7 retweets 31 likes
      Show this thread
    2. PoliMath‏ @politicalmath 27 Oct 2020

      It looks like there is a pretty serious surge happening in Massachusetts. We can tell b/c they helpfully publish their wastewater COVID data, which is known to be a very early indicator of infection.

      3 replies 2 retweets 23 likes
      Show this thread
    3. PoliMath‏ @politicalmath 27 Oct 2020

      The wastewater samples are... not encouragingpic.twitter.com/1xroMIbk6o

      2 replies 0 retweets 21 likes
      Show this thread
    4. PoliMath‏ @politicalmath 27 Oct 2020

      So we know there's an infection spike on the way. What should we do about it? Well... that's the problem.pic.twitter.com/gFu0hN16RQ

      5 replies 1 retweet 20 likes
      Show this thread
    5. PoliMath‏ @politicalmath 27 Oct 2020

      Whatever happens, we're approaching the limits of what policy can do. Without nearly martial law levels of enforcement (which people simply will not tolerate), it's difficult to say what people will do if there is another forced lockdown.pic.twitter.com/iLloPoaZQc

      5 replies 5 retweets 34 likes
      Show this thread
      PoliMath‏ @politicalmath 27 Oct 2020

      The good news is that we are *way* more prepared to deal with this thing than we were in March. The bad news is that MA was supposedly a place where mask compliance was among the highest in the nation. Masks very likely reduce infection risk but they don't solve the problempic.twitter.com/w0zLDTlEpR

      9:13 AM - 27 Oct 2020
      • 12 Retweets
      • 57 Likes
      • Violet.Lotus Andy Deloney You Can Come Back Now, Steve Cohen Dante Alighieri Chuck Sperling Jonathan Cast #AJAA #Resist Connor Thorp IAmTheSeth slickdpdx
      23 replies 12 retweets 57 likes
        1. Lance Uppercut‏ @wyvereal 27 Oct 2020
          Replying to @politicalmath

          feels like masks are a bit like bicycle helmets

          0 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
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        2. Pirate Captain‏ @Pirate__Captain 27 Oct 2020

          I feel like this is where strong government action makes sense, if you just tell people that we're in the middle of a surge and to be careful, people will naturally do less risky activities (going to bars, movies, restaurants, etc), but these businesses will struggle (1)

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. Dan‏ @Dano_el_Mano 27 Oct 2020
          Replying to @politicalmath

          At some point, human behavior changes. We saw that over the summer in the Sun Belt. Some people are changing their behavior now, more will as the spread gets closer and closer to home, some just won't. It's going to be regrettable that more didn't sooner....

          4 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Dan‏ @Dano_el_Mano 27 Oct 2020
          Replying to @Dano_el_Mano @politicalmath

          ....there will be targeted closures of bars and restos in some places eventually. Probably some schools will go backwards, too. It's a shame that we are not united and willing to do the easy things to avoid the hard.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Melissa Mackenzie‏ @MelissaTweets 27 Oct 2020
          Replying to @politicalmath

          Are you sure masks are reducing risk? What if they're making the problem worse?

          3 replies 1 retweet 8 likes
        3. PoliMath‏ @politicalmath 27 Oct 2020
          Replying to @MelissaTweets

          I've seen very little evidence that masks make things worse and some good evidence that they make things somewhat better. Somewhat. How much is still a big question.

          8 replies 0 retweets 21 likes
        4. Show replies
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        2. Michael from Montana‏ @WellspringGP 27 Oct 2020
          Replying to @politicalmath

          This is the junkiest “analysis” of the covid history, against stiff competition.

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. Bitter Grizzly‏ @Bitter_Grizzly 27 Oct 2020
          Replying to @WellspringGP @politicalmath

          I presume you have something better?

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. LibertyPlease‏ @Liberty_Please_ 27 Oct 2020
          Replying to @politicalmath

          I have an honest question about this graph. It lists % of people who know someone who has symptoms... not who actually have confirmed case. That is a pretty wide range of symptoms that mimic many other things. Is there a similar graph that does actual cases against mask use?

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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