A hung parliament depending on Parties of Northern Ireland is not unlikely but there's no real projections of what will happen there.
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Thanks so much. Anyone modelling that into seats?
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Don't think so. It's hard to because it's so fragmented. Much easier to use uniform swing with Conservative-Labour marginals...
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Means its next to impossible to guess who will be Prime Minister if there's a hung parliament :/
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Think a hung parliament where NI makes a difference is incredibly unlikely. That said, we can pretty safely predict DUP 7/8/9, Sinn Fein 4/5
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If there's a hung parliament, NI will 100% play a part. Only DUP will coalition with Tories Labour will be so far behind they'd need support
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The only situation where Northern Ireland makes a difference is if the Conservatives get 310-320 MPs. Chances of that are so slim.
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Yes that's what I've already said. NI will only be relevant under a hung parliament, and Tories will only be up to 20 seats short under one.
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Sinn Féin not taking their seats could be a big factor in government formation. DUP will side with Tories.
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Would SF take their seats to form a coalition if Labour promised a border poll? (I don't think that's remotely likely but…)
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Tbh I don't think so. They've made such a big deal of abstaining from Westminster that I believe they'd look v.silly performing big u-turn.
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There will likely be little to no change here in NI, SF could gain 1 or 2 seats max, DUP could gain 1 as could Alliance. Uup & SDLP down 1
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How likely is Alliance to win a seat?
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It's possible due to the UUP standing in East Belfast therefore splitting the unionist vote. There was a pact in 2015, no pact this time.
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Is it sad that I'm getting excited about the election on Thursday?
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I'm just really hoping we get a progressive government that isn't afraid of reform! We've been stuck with one for far to long!
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