probability is counting
There is no good definition of probability. For frequentists, it requires an infinite number of independent events, i.e., it doesn’t exist in the real world. For Bayesians, it’s subjective, i.e., arbitrary and useless for science.
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Frequency is counting. Probability requires infinite counts.
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The Bayesian point of view just makes clear that science is, itself, subjective. A pile of assumptions and beliefs. Engineers tinker and create experience, scientists do very little beyond report what was already known by the makers.
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I guess Newton, Einstein, Gauss and other great scientists are useless then../
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All I have to say is that I can count 12345 or 6 https://music.youtube.com/watch?v=BXbsgwTwsdk&feature=share …
Kiitos. Käytämme tätä aikajanasi parantamiseen. KumoaKumoa
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Probability is subjective because it measures ignorance. Without context, the probability of event A is 50%. If A = rolling a 6 on, it’s 16.7% — assuming it’s a fair 6-sided die. If A is rolling a 6 in one specific throw, then it’s either 0 or 1: the toss itself is deterministic.
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Even the frequentist view of probability is subjective. Sure, it’s counting, but counting *what*? How and what you count will change the probability. Bertrand’s paradox is a classic example of this.
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What is the problem with; Probability of event X is the expected frequency of X among all expected possible events. Whether the expectations are realistic or can be tested is another thing. Is there a problem in the definition? Or in the a priori assignement of numbers?
Kiitos. Käytämme tätä aikajanasi parantamiseen. KumoaKumoa
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How is the entropy topic going? :-)
Kiitos. Käytämme tätä aikajanasi parantamiseen. KumoaKumoa
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Probability theory is the unique extension of propositional logic to plausible reasoning with incomplete information.https://arxiv.org/abs/1706.05261
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But it has problems.
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