As a rule of thumb, the more extreme a weather event, the less likely you can ascribe it to climate change.
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I'm not sure that works as a pure fact of statistics. Assume you *cough* meet the basic assumptions of an iid sample *cough*, then isn't it the case that an extremely unlikely event under condition A is very much more likely under condition B that shifts the mean. (?)
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Slow down
The frequency+intensity of extreme weather events has increased steadily for decades. The news is narratively driven junk; however, the trend is loud and clear.
It was this piece of evidence in particular that caused the Pentagon to take climate change seriously. -
No, it hasn't. Read "Unsettled", for example. It goes into this in some detail. (In any case, none of this contradicts my original point, which is well known among serious climate scientists.)
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