Yes, and what I'm pointing out is that, since even with these taxes and subsidies renewables are overwhelmingly not being chosen by the market, they're a lot worse than they're made out to be.
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Vastauksena käyttäjille @pmddomingos ja @erikbryn
Also, the externalities of fossil fuels have been greatly overestimated and those of renewables underestimated, so large subsidies and taxes favoring the latter are bad, but that's a separate point.
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Vastauksena käyttäjälle @pmddomingos
Here are the best estimates of the pollution cost of fossil fuels: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.101.5.1649 … For coal, the externalities are larger than the entire value added – we’d be better off with zero coal production. As we did with acid rain, lead and cfcs, we can address this.
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Vastauksena käyttäjälle @erikbryn
Yes, coal is a bad polluter, but natural gas is not. And all costs and benefits of each alternative must be considered. On balance, natural gas is currently a better option than renewables.
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Vastauksena käyttäjälle @pmddomingos
Now your beginning to think like an economist (a compliment in my circles, believe if or not) A great way to make it easy for people to take into account the costs and benefits of alternatives (including externalities) is with Pigouvian taxes:https://taxfoundation.org/tax-basics/pigouvian-tax/ …
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Vastauksena käyttäjälle @erikbryn
Ha. I've been thinking like an economist all along, and if you discount the anti-CO2 hysteria, you'll come to the same conclusions I have. The problem is the hysterics that don't know Econ 101, and the economists that don't speak up against their antics.
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Vastauksena käyttäjälle @pmddomingos
So you think we should have a larger Pigouvian tax on coal and oil to accelerate the switch to cleaner sources like most economists do? I was literally at a conference of economists this morning where this was discussed. Here's a good list:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pigou_Club
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Vastauksena käyttäjälle @erikbryn
You have to distinguish pollution and CO2, which are very different things. The Pigouvian tax on CO2 should be quite small. The shortcomings of clean energy are severe. On balance, the best choice is natural gas. Do you disagree?
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Vastauksena käyttäjälle @pmddomingos
I agree that natural gas is good stop-gap if used to replace worse alternatives like coal. I disagree about optimal tax on carbon. I agree with the overwhelming consensus of climate researchers and economists that it should likely be about $40/ton.https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-to-set-a-price-on-carbon-pollution/ …
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Vastauksena käyttäjille @erikbryn ja @pmddomingos
Note that if the uncertainty about climate effects of CO2 increases (for any given best average estimate) then the expected economic costs are *higher*.
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It's the average estimate that's too high. And uncertainty does *not* necessarily increase economic costs, which could even be negative (e.g., higher agricultural productivity, lower deaths from cold, etc.). (BTW, Gaussians are symmetric - you know that.)
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Vastauksena käyttäjälle @pmddomingos
Based on my non-expert reading of the data and research, I disagree. So do most climate scientists. Symmetric uncertainty increases expected costs when costs are convex. (Jensen's Inequality) as with climate change (4 degrees hotter is more than twice as damaging as 2 degrees)
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Vastauksena käyttäjille @erikbryn ja @pmddomingos
They don't need the subsidies. It's just bad policy
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