Yes, but if renewables are cheaper they should prevail even without externality taxes and subsidies. Unless the problem is that they're worse (e.g., less reliable, hidden costs, etc.).
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Vastauksena käyttäjälle @pmddomingos
There's a continuum of uses. When there are externalities, markets do not settle on the optimal set of choices (except in corner solutions). Taxes and subsidies allow the "invisible hand" of decentralized business and consumer choices to settle on the optimal mix of uses.
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Vastauksena käyttäjälle @erikbryn
Yes, and what I'm pointing out is that, since even with these taxes and subsidies renewables are overwhelmingly not being chosen by the market, they're a lot worse than they're made out to be.
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Vastauksena käyttäjille @pmddomingos ja @erikbryn
Also, the externalities of fossil fuels have been greatly overestimated and those of renewables underestimated, so large subsidies and taxes favoring the latter are bad, but that's a separate point.
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Vastauksena käyttäjälle @pmddomingos
Here are the best estimates of the pollution cost of fossil fuels: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.101.5.1649 … For coal, the externalities are larger than the entire value added – we’d be better off with zero coal production. As we did with acid rain, lead and cfcs, we can address this.
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Vastauksena käyttäjälle @erikbryn
Yes, coal is a bad polluter, but natural gas is not. And all costs and benefits of each alternative must be considered. On balance, natural gas is currently a better option than renewables.
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Vastauksena käyttäjälle @pmddomingos
Now your beginning to think like an economist (a compliment in my circles, believe if or not) A great way to make it easy for people to take into account the costs and benefits of alternatives (including externalities) is with Pigouvian taxes:https://taxfoundation.org/tax-basics/pigouvian-tax/ …
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Vastauksena käyttäjälle @erikbryn
Ha. I've been thinking like an economist all along, and if you discount the anti-CO2 hysteria, you'll come to the same conclusions I have. The problem is the hysterics that don't know Econ 101, and the economists that don't speak up against their antics.
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Vastauksena käyttäjälle @pmddomingos
So you think we should have a larger Pigouvian tax on coal and oil to accelerate the switch to cleaner sources like most economists do? I was literally at a conference of economists this morning where this was discussed. Here's a good list:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pigou_Club
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Vastauksena käyttäjille @erikbryn ja @pmddomingos
Here's another example of what economists think about carbon taxes: https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/carbon-taxes-ii/ … I hope you are in step with the overwhelming majority of economists, but it doesn't sound like you are.
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The optimal carbon tax is a function of the size of the externality, which is being massively overestimated. The economists are being led astray by bad climate models. Got it?
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Vastauksena käyttäjälle @pmddomingos
I really liked your book and many of your insights about AI, but when it comes to the costs of climate change, I put more weight on the estimates of people who have studied this question carefully, like the IPCC and Bill Nordhaus. https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_chapter2.pdf …
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Vastauksena käyttäjille @erikbryn ja @pmddomingos
And FWIW, the externality from burning coal is overwhelmingly bad even before including any cost at all from climate change. Particulate pollution is deadly.
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