It's well known. (Read Chapter 4 of "Unsettled", for example.)
Little-known fact about climate models: the values of many key parameters are unknown, so they're set to produce the desired predictions, not based on physical reality. In other words, the models don't so much predict global warming as encode the assumption that it will happen.
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Tämä twiitti ei ole saatavilla.
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Shit in shit out
Kiitos. Käytämme tätä aikajanasi parantamiseen. KumoaKumoa
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Curious about your thoughts on this kind of validation (see below)? I’m not in this field, but making accurate predictions would seem to be validation, no? What am I missing? Thx https://www.e-education.psu.edu/meteo469/node/141 …
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As I said earlier, you could beat this with linear regression.
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Sounds like it would be useful to register model predictions every, say, 5 years in something like the clinical trials dbs used in medical research (e.g., https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/manage-recs/how-register …). Is this actually already done or can we only rely on old ad-hoc reports and news about these?
Kiitos. Käytämme tätä aikajanasi parantamiseen. KumoaKumoa
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