Why not have a @Kaggle competition to predict global temperature? Then we'll see how good those climate models really are.
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Data is public so how do you get a hold out?
Believe it or not, climate modelers don't use holdouts. They tweak parameters by hand until it gives the results they want. Just what we teach students not to do in ML 101. (And even then their ability to fit past data sucks.)
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How do you have a holdout for something that is an anomaly that never happened in the past thousands of years? All we can see I guess is a trend line of exponential nature. You can debate `when` not `if`, and for answering `when` we might not even have sufficient data.
Kiitos. Käytämme tätä aikajanasi parantamiseen. KumoaKumoa
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This comment is Not Even Wrong. Climate modeling is simulation based inference (the issues are with the uncertainties in the dynamical model itself) in the low data regime. Why extrapolate to areas you are largely ignorant about based on little or no knowledge?
Kiitos. Käytämme tätä aikajanasi parantamiseen. KumoaKumoa
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Seriously, 140 characters are not enough to explain to you how clueless and ignorant this comment is. This extreme level of over-confidence while knowing so little about a multidisciplinary area which spans multiple areas of Physics, is a little pathological.
Kiitos. Käytämme tätä aikajanasi parantamiseen. KumoaKumoa
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