Jonathan McDowellVerifizierter Account

An ocean reentry was always statistically the most likely. It appears China won its gamble (unless we get news of debris in the Maldives). But it was still reckless

Indeed, there’ll be a lot of pro-China sources acting like this was by design, and we all know it was just a fluke.

Is there a good reason why they chose not to do a controlled deorbit?

I think there's some debate as to whether this one was supposed to have the ability to do a controlled deorbit at all? Clearly even if it was supposed to, it didn't work out.

There's no debate among experts. This rocket did not have controlled deorbit ability. This was a design choice, not an operational problem

It’s very likely Tianhe module had enough delta v with onboard propulsion that it could have finished the ascent to orbit if the stage had been suborbital with a perigee over the Atlantic. But that would have cost China more in terms of propellent

It would have cost a very important amount indeed, and more Tianzhou launches to replenish Tianhe would have been necessary. I think that’s the main reason why they let the core stage get to orbit.