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pkalina's profile
Phil Kalina 😐 #GetVaccinated
Phil Kalina 😐 #GetVaccinated
Phil Kalina  😐 #GetVaccinated
@pkalina

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Phil Kalina  😐 #GetVaccinated

@pkalina

Statistician and data scientist building models for prediction and decision support. From the Bronx, now in Cleveland and DC. He/him

Cleveland, OH
Joined December 2008

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 8 Apr 2021

      Short thread. I keep seeing claims on how some places may have reached herd immunity & calculations on whether a variant is more virulent or disporportionately affects the young etc. These are not easy things to discern so let’s not do confident back-of-the-envelope calculations.

      19 replies 178 retweets 776 likes
      Show this thread
    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 8 Apr 2021

      True seroprevalence is not easy to figure out outside of true random sampling—rarely done. A lull in cases after a surge? Maybe, maybe not. (Not very likely, to be honest). Blood bank etc. sampling? Maybe. Confounding issues are thorny. Modeling? Very parameter dependent. Hard Q.

      8 replies 8 retweets 159 likes
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    3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 8 Apr 2021

      More younger people at the ICU compared to past? Could be an outbreak affecting them more because of network structure or behavior, vaccine/past immunity among elderly, ICU capacity change compared to past or even temp reporting blip in some countries, among many other things.

      6 replies 11 retweets 151 likes
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    4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 8 Apr 2021

      A variant rising in an area could be founder or stochastic effects (one version happened to catch in a superspreading event—this pathogen is very overdispersed) or actually outcompeting others through more transmissibility. That’s why it took time to establish B.1.1.7 was.

      2 replies 6 retweets 129 likes
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    5. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 8 Apr 2021

      Similarly, previous (not that well-established) claims of high infection rate through models based on (maybe, maybe-not accurate) nonrandom seroprevalance are NOT, by themselves proof of widespread reinfection, or even that reinfected cases are severe or equally contagious etc.

      1 reply 5 retweets 107 likes
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    6. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 8 Apr 2021

      I used to teach methods and stats for sociology students, and epidemiology examples were always very useful because they really are among the thorniest to try to untangle. And I believe harmful to overclaim, and not necessary to do so to make basic public health recommendations.

      2 replies 11 retweets 196 likes
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      Phil Kalina  😐 #GetVaccinated‏ @pkalina 8 Apr 2021
      Replying to @zeynep

      Since last year, docs have learned to avoid putting patients on ventilators if possible. Thus patients on ventilators this year are likely to be sicker that such patients last year. Can’t this be an explanation for the rise in mortality?https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2767021 …

      6:47 AM - 8 Apr 2021
      • 1 Retweet
      • 9 Likes
      • OutsideContextProblem Alex Berenson is Right g 🇺🇸🇫🇷 Lester Christopher Olin J LiberalAgainstLockdowns Dante Rondo Kevin Stewart
      1 reply 1 retweet 9 likes
        1. BiotechObserver‏ @BiotechObserver 8 Apr 2021
          Replying to @pkalina @zeynep

          Given that elderly are not filling up beds and they have rooms full of empty ventilators, do you think they are still as incentivized to avoid putting on ventilators as they were before? People still seem to think this is standard of care.

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