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Do not attempt to compete with Pinboard. http://pinboard.in  maciej@ceglowski.com +1 415 610 0231

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    Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 27 Aug 2017

    Trump calls this a ‘500-year flood’. Some other notable 500 year floods happened in 2011, 2009, 2008, 1993, and 1927. Modeling is hard.

    10:23 AM - 27 Aug 2017
    • 120 Retweets
    • 258 Likes
    • Joel 🔞BusterWilbury™ Jeffrey Hartmann 🕊️ Illegible Smudge Bird Mackey Aguante Racing Carajo Paul D. Waite Andrew Davidson mholtan
    4 replies 120 retweets 258 likes
      1. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 27 Aug 2017
        Replying to @Pinboard

        we pay for this modeling hubris with lives and insurance claims. Land behind a 100 year levee is not considered a floodplain!

        0 replies 2 retweets 37 likes
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      2. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 27 Aug 2017

        they should row faster. But the base point is important—you can’t estimate the frequency of rare events without a HUGE sample

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. tryggth‏ @tryggth 27 Aug 2017
        Replying to @Pinboard @valarauca1

        It's a model based on the regularity of larger data set. Not perfect, but perhaps Bayesian. https://www.ndsu.edu/pubweb/~sainieid/group/100-year.htm …

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 27 Aug 2017

        in my experience, the scientists are quite humble about the limits. But then a pyramid of policy gets written on top of findings

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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      1. TotalBiscuit‏Verified account @Totalbiscuit 27 Aug 2017
        Replying to @Pinboard @ja2ke

        Nobody could have known it would be so complicated

        0 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
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      1. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 27 Aug 2017

        are you thinking of HAZUS or something else?

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      1. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 27 Aug 2017
        Replying to @kneath

        you can do the math on the likelihood of seeing three 500 year floods in 4 years. More likely is, we don’t understand the system

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 27 Aug 2017

        can you expand what you mean? I’m not even sure we’re disagreeing

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      1. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 27 Aug 2017
        Replying to @kneath

        it wasn’t a fair coin

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      2. Colin Slater‏ @cts_xyz 27 Aug 2017
        Replying to @Pinboard

        n-year-flood refers to recurrence *at the same place*.

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      3. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 27 Aug 2017
        Replying to @cts_xyz

        I get that. Three of my examples are Mississippi River floods that affected the same place

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      4. End of conversation

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