we pay for this modeling hubris with lives and insurance claims. Land behind a 100 year levee is not considered a floodplain!
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they should row faster. But the base point is important—you can’t estimate the frequency of rare events without a HUGE sample
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It's a model based on the regularity of larger data set. Not perfect, but perhaps Bayesian. https://www.ndsu.edu/pubweb/~sainieid/group/100-year.htm …
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in my experience, the scientists are quite humble about the limits. But then a pyramid of policy gets written on top of findings
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Nobody could have known it would be so complicated
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are you thinking of HAZUS or something else?
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you can do the math on the likelihood of seeing three 500 year floods in 4 years. More likely is, we don’t understand the system
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can you expand what you mean? I’m not even sure we’re disagreeing
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it wasn’t a fair coin
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n-year-flood refers to recurrence *at the same place*.
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I get that. Three of my examples are Mississippi River floods that affected the same place
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