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phl43's profile
Philippe Lemoine
Philippe Lemoine
Philippe Lemoine
@phl43

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Philippe Lemoine

@phl43

I'm a PhD candidate in philosophy at Cornell University. I also have a blog where I write about various topics of interest to me.

Paris, France
necpluribusimpar.net
Joined April 2017

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    Philippe Lemoine‏ @phl43 24 Jul 2017

    Okay here is a thread about the latest data on immigration and crime in Germany. It’s based on data in this article. http://www.epochtimes.de/politik/welt/ines-laufer-die-fluechtlings-kriminalitaet-zwischen-fakten-und-medienluegen-a2132375.html …

    12:39 PM - 24 Jul 2017
    • 499 Retweets
    • 615 Likes
    • Old Whig Random Critical Analysis 🎲🤔🕵️ 5p0093r Mason Masters 👨‍🌾📉 IKTr fairway phil Action Hank James Martinus Wallace russophile 🎩
    34 replies 499 retweets 615 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Philippe Lemoine‏ @phl43 24 Jul 2017
        Replying to @phl43

        As we know, the notion that migrants commit a lot of crimes is a far-right fantasy, which bears no connection to reality.

        6 replies 23 retweets 64 likes
      3. Philippe Lemoine‏ @phl43 24 Jul 2017
        Replying to @phl43

        That’s what the sophisticates believe anyway, but it’s not what the data show.

        2 replies 17 retweets 69 likes
      4. Philippe Lemoine‏ @phl43 24 Jul 2017
        Replying to @phl43

        According to the data released a few weeks ago, foreigners have a crime rate ~3.5 that of Germans. For asylum seekers the factor is ~7.3.pic.twitter.com/31V7Zq7jUC

        12 replies 432 retweets 536 likes
      5. Philippe Lemoine‏ @phl43 24 Jul 2017
        Replying to @phl43

        For the record, this excludes violations of immigration law, so it doesn’t explain the disparity.

        1 reply 20 retweets 89 likes
      6. Philippe Lemoine‏ @phl43 24 Jul 2017
        Replying to @phl43

        Also, foreigners are mostly European immigrants, whose crime rate is presumably about the same as Germans.

        6 replies 19 retweets 62 likes
      7. Philippe Lemoine‏ @phl43 24 Jul 2017
        Replying to @phl43

        Thus, for immigrants who come from outside Europe but aren’t asylum seekers, the ratio is probably much higher.

        2 replies 20 retweets 69 likes
      8. Philippe Lemoine‏ @phl43 24 Jul 2017
        Replying to @phl43

        In the case of violent crime, the ratio is ~5 for foreigners and ~15.1 for asylum seekers.pic.twitter.com/BzjDVdluw5

        4 replies 136 retweets 153 likes
      9. Philippe Lemoine‏ @phl43 24 Jul 2017
        Replying to @phl43

        It’s about the same — ~4.9 and ~15.3 respectively — for crimes that led to dangerous and serious personal injuries.pic.twitter.com/Fc9OHj2Cam

        2 replies 58 retweets 92 likes
      10. Philippe Lemoine‏ @phl43 24 Jul 2017
        Replying to @phl43

        For sexual assaults and rape, the ratio is ~5.2 for foreigners and ~15.2 for asylum seekers.pic.twitter.com/GfvhA4G9pY

        15 replies 486 retweets 610 likes
      11. Philippe Lemoine‏ @phl43 24 Jul 2017
        Replying to @phl43

        Think about that the next time you hear a feminist talk about the evil of German rape culture.

        4 replies 36 retweets 148 likes
      12. Philippe Lemoine‏ @phl43 24 Jul 2017
        Replying to @phl43

        The same pattern holds across a wide variety of crimes.pic.twitter.com/edZK2bNZ65

        4 replies 43 retweets 63 likes
      13. Philippe Lemoine‏ @phl43 24 Jul 2017
        Replying to @phl43

        Foreigners are ~4.8 times more likely to commit murder, asylum seekers ~10.6 times.

        3 replies 43 retweets 82 likes
      14. Philippe Lemoine‏ @phl43 24 Jul 2017
        Replying to @phl43

        In the case of gangrape, the ratio is ~10.3 for foreigners, and a whopping 42.7 for asylum seekers!

        3 replies 134 retweets 161 likes
      15. Philippe Lemoine‏ @phl43 24 Jul 2017
        Replying to @phl43

        Again, when it comes to rape culture, German men clearly have a lot to learn from recent arrivals!

        2 replies 22 retweets 83 likes
      16. Philippe Lemoine‏ @phl43 24 Jul 2017
        Replying to @phl43

        These figures are based on people investigated by the police, so bias could play a role.

        1 reply 4 retweets 31 likes
      17. Philippe Lemoine‏ @phl43 24 Jul 2017
        Replying to @phl43

        Perhaps victims are more likely to report committed by immigrants and/or police more likely to investigate.

        7 replies 3 retweets 24 likes
      18. Philippe Lemoine‏ @phl43 24 Jul 2017
        Replying to @phl43

        But the disparities are way too large for this to explain more than a small fraction.

        2 replies 6 retweets 38 likes
      19. Philippe Lemoine‏ @phl43 24 Jul 2017
        Replying to @phl43

        Moreover, many of the victims of immigrants are probably immigrants themselves, and immigrants are presumably less likely to report.

        3 replies 7 retweets 48 likes
      20. Philippe Lemoine‏ @phl43 24 Jul 2017
        Replying to @phl43

        So it seems unlikely that, in general, crimes committed by immigrants are more likely to be reported.

        2 replies 3 retweets 37 likes
      21. Philippe Lemoine‏ @phl43 24 Jul 2017
        Replying to @phl43

        It’s possible that police is more likely to investigate crimes committed by immigrants/asylum seekers.

        1 reply 2 retweets 26 likes
      22. Philippe Lemoine‏ @phl43 24 Jul 2017
        Replying to @phl43

        But given how the ratios vary depending on type of crime, such a bias, if it exists, is unlikely to be very large.

        1 reply 2 retweets 20 likes
      23. Philippe Lemoine‏ @phl43 24 Jul 2017
        Replying to @phl43

        This kind of bias would presumably be more obvious for less serious crime, because there is less at stake so cops are freer to act on bias.

        2 replies 1 retweet 17 likes
      24. Philippe Lemoine‏ @phl43 24 Jul 2017
        Replying to @phl43

        However, looking at the data, the opposite seems to be true. Disparity is much larger for murder and rape than for non-violent crime.

        2 replies 1 retweet 23 likes
      25. Philippe Lemoine‏ @phl43 24 Jul 2017
        Replying to @phl43

        The fact that immigrants skew male and young is no doubt part of the story, but there is no way it explains all of it.

        3 replies 1 retweet 17 likes
      26. Philippe Lemoine‏ @phl43 24 Jul 2017
        Replying to @phl43

        It's also of dubious relevance: if you have been raped, you don't care whether it's because your assailant was male & young or an immigrant.

        1 reply 2 retweets 19 likes
      27. Philippe Lemoine‏ @phl43 24 Jul 2017
        Replying to @phl43

        Same remarks for socio-economic status and other variables associated with crime beside nationality and immigrant status.

        1 reply 1 retweet 12 likes
      28. Philippe Lemoine‏ @phl43 24 Jul 2017
        Replying to @phl43

        People aren't sociologists, what they care about is whether immigration increases crime, not *why* it does.

        1 reply 14 retweets 43 likes
      29. Philippe Lemoine‏ @phl43 24 Jul 2017
        Replying to @phl43

        It's easy for the sophisticates to protest that it's immoral to reject people because they are poor, uneducated, etc.

        3 replies 7 retweets 23 likes
      30. Philippe Lemoine‏ @phl43 24 Jul 2017
        Replying to @phl43

        They know it's not on their neighborhoods immigrants will be dumped. Generosity is cheap when it comes at the expense of other people.

        1 reply 32 retweets 77 likes
      31. Philippe Lemoine‏ @phl43 24 Jul 2017
        Replying to @phl43

        Now have a look at these statistics again and compare them to how the media talks about this issue. Do you notice anything? Yeah, me too...

        1 reply 9 retweets 38 likes
      32. 3 more replies

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