Without normalizing them against a nationwide crime wave there is little relevance, but you could at least start with selecting the time period from when he took office rather than was elected.
#StandWithChesa because data says hes making our city safer.https://twitter.com/moskov/status/1400223655305515011 …
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Replying to @netfire4 @the_watcher and
The city isn't safer. Of course one has to compare pre-Chesa w/post-Chesa, YTD 2021 vs 2019: Homicides +15.4% Burglary +21.9% Car Theft +33.5% Arson +56.3% https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1shF9HBKAyaxjCkFMbnpdr6ORZtFnWds-HW0AXGkDdd0/edit?usp=sharing … Shootings are up 105.2% YTD 2021 vs 2020.
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Replying to @WeideKarsten @netfire4 and
If these stats hold, 2019, during height of sheltering, is not the trustworthy yardstick. It’s the yardstick of a recaller threatened by justice reform, police accountability, and protection of workers rights, to name a couple. Justice reform makes cities safer.
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Replying to @cameronshanti3 @netfire4 and
2019 was not shelter in place. So what these numbers say, for instance, is that homicides are up this year (2021) from the least year without Chesa (2019), year-to-date. You could also compare the full year 2020 (also Chesa) with 2019 - the numbers would be just as bad.
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Replying to @WeideKarsten @netfire4 and
My mistake re 2019, but again these fluctuations have occurred throughout SF history. Factoring in police accountability re stats as well as violence, DA addresses causes at the root which prove to permanently decrease crime, if not immediately.
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Replying to @cameronshanti3 @netfire4 and
Hey, I'm not the one who said "restorative justice" is the bees knees. Progressives did. And for SF, comparing pre-Chesa with post-Chesa, the results are not good.
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Replying to @WeideKarsten @netfire4 and
There is an abundance of information which shows restorative justice works. Here is one. https://www.d.umn.edu/~jmaahs/Correctional%20Assessment/rj_meta%20analysis.pdf …
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Replying to @cameronshanti3 @netfire4 and
Interesting, thanks, I will gladly check it out.
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Replying to @WeideKarsten @netfire4 and
Here also informative on restorative justice. And I’ll send a couple more.https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1745-9133.2005.00010.x …
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Replying to @cameronshanti3 @WeideKarsten and
Karsten, I'd encourage you to do better than "pre/post-Chesa". As others have said, you're taking data from before Chesa was in office. Furthermore, blithely grabbing 2 numbers doesn't factor in COVID-19, lack of federal aid like other countries had, shuttered courthouses, etc.
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Arguing crime numbers on Twitter is a battle I haven't time for, but I'll leave you with this. If you want to talk real FBI data, then I will stick with the conclusion the SF Chronicle has drawn numerous times. There isn't a crime rate, and crime isn't up.https://www.sfchronicle.com/opinion/editorials/article/Editorial-No-the-Bay-Area-is-not-in-the-midst-16321086.php …
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